From a global perspective, the energy strategy of the United States is gradually returning to the Americas. While Europe relies on Russia, it is likely to import more oil from Central Asia and North Africa, while the Middle East oil will mainly be supplied to the Asia Pacific market.

Recently, the International Energy Agency predicted that, thanks to the vigorous development of shale oil, the United States would surpass Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world's largest oil producer by 2015, and that in 20 years the United States would achieve energy self-sufficiency.

This prediction is surprising and widely concerned by all parties. Although this is only a prediction, the continuous release of oil and gas production potential in the United States in recent years will lead to a series of changes in the global oil and gas pattern. The trend of "shifting the production center to the west and the consumption center to the east" in world energy is obvious.

Due to the fact that only oil in the primary energy structure of the United States requires significant imports, oil independence is the focus of the United States energy independence strategy. The adoption of several new technologies such as "hydraulic fracturing" and the high price of oil have enabled the exploitation of large amounts of oil resources in the shale of North Dakota in the United States and Germany. In 2012, US oil production significantly increased, with a year-on-year increase of 920000 barrels per day. It is expected to increase by 570000 barrels per day in 2013. According to estimates by the International Energy Agency, US oil production may continue to increase further until 2020. In the long run, this will have an impact on the global energy market.

However, the territory of the global energy market dominated by the Middle East for a long time may quietly change. The abundant unconventional oil in North America, including shale oil in the United States and oil sands in Canada, can become the fastest growing source of oil exploration and become the main force in the growth of oil production in non OPEC countries in recent years. The energy influence of Central and South America is also increasing, especially in Venezuela and Brazil. In terms of resource holdings, Venezuela is extremely rich in ultra-heavy oil resources, while Brazil is one of the most potential deep-sea oil developing countries in the world.

Globally, the energy strategy of the United States is gradually returning to the Americas. While Europe relies on Russia, it is likely to import more oil from Central Asia and North Africa, while the Middle East oil will mainly be supplied to the Asia Pacific market.

Against this background, China's energy development and security may face even more severe challenges. In 2012, China imported 280 million tons of crude oil, with an external dependency of 58%; By 2035, China's oil dependence on foreign countries may exceed 80%. China's traditional strategic outlook on energy security is basically based on the rapid rise in energy prices, especially oil prices.

Obviously, China's response strategy can be considered from various aspects, but the most important thing is to diversify oil imports to diversify risks and minimize dependence on oil and natural gas imports by adjusting domestic and foreign energy supply and demand strategies. On the supply side, the first is to diversify energy imports as much as possible, and further expand oil and gas cooperation with Russia and Central Asia. At the same time, it is necessary to try to open up a land connection channel with the Middle East through Central Asia, reducing dependence on the Strait of Malacca; The second is to search for oil substitutes domestically. On the demand side, it is necessary to curb the rapidly growing domestic demand for oil as much as possible, which involves the reform of the energy pricing mechanism.